Construction Savings, Location and Housing Affordability: Evidence from Portugal, the European Union and Angola

Repository abstract

Housing affordability depends on the price of entry, the existing service stock and household access to location. This paper combines Portuguese transaction and listing observations, harmonized European Union indicators, Angola's 2024 census and an explicit stock–flow model of reversible housing. September 2026 advertised prices are EUR 6,256/m2 in Lisboa and EUR 4,346/m2 in Porto; new-dwelling transaction medians in the rolling year ending Q1 2026 are EUR 6,226 and EUR 3,904. Distinguishing these measures resolves misleading comparisons between national averages and urban entry markets. Across the EU, 2015–2025 house-price growth ranges from a small decline in Finland to 266.6% in Hungary; Greece remains missing in the retrieved house-price series. Portugal's 6.3% overall housing-cost overburden rate conceals 27.2% among market-rent tenants. Five EU stock–flow reference scenarios imply service-price reductions of 0.178–0.529% at 50% new-flow adoption under an assumed 9% acquisition-equivalent saving. Angola's separately parameterized proxy gives 0.338%, with much weaker flow and behavioral calibration. An exposure bound and demand-reversal threshold explain the limited transmission. Lifecycle charges, simultaneous use and location-access losses can offset direct savings. Descriptive findings are separated from deterministic counterfactuals; no causal technology effect or habitable robotic performance is established.